AL East Preview: Full Forecast for Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays
Elsa/Getty ImagesFor the first time in what feels like 100 years, the American League East is as wide open as any division in baseball.
Instead of the usual talk about the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, there is very real, very legitimate buzz surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays for the first time since the franchise won back-to-back World Series in 1992 and 1993.
The Baltimore Orioles were the biggest surprise in all of baseball, winning 93 games, making the postseason for the first time since 1997 and taking the Yankees to five games in the American League Division Series.
The Tampa Bay Rays may not have been able to get over the hump last season, but an active winter that saw the team deal from its surplus of pitching to add one of the best and most exciting prospects in all of baseball could be exactly what this team needs.
Even though the Red Sox and Yankees have their share of problems heading into the regular season, there is still more than enough talent on both teams to get them back to the postseason in 2013.
Here is a look at all five teams in the American League East, including what they need to go right, what could go wrong and a final record projection.
New York Yankees
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2012 Record
95-67, 1st place in American League East (swept by Detroit in ALCS)
What the Yankees need to happen in 2013
Even though the Yankees kept most of their free agents, the talk this offseason revolved around three key players for very different reasons.
Alex Rodriguez‘s hip now looks like an afterthought when he was listed in the Miami New Times report linking him to performance-enhancing drugs at the Biogenesis clinic in Miami.
Derek Jeter broke his ankle in the first game of the American League Championship Series against Detroit. He claims that playing on Opening Day is still his goal, though it remains to be seen if that will happen.
Robinson Cano is in entering the final year of his contract with the Yankees. A report from the New York Daily News states that the All-Star second baseman is not going to give them a hometown discount.
Even with the contract talk coming after the season, Cano is still going to be an MVP candidate and the player who carries the lineup throughout the summer.
On top of all those questions and potential distractions, the Yankees are battling Father Time. They are a team built around a lot of old, declining stars. Rodriguez may not play this season, but even if he does, no one knows what he will be due to his hip problems.
Jeter had a lot of hits last season, but he turns 39 in June, hits an overwhelming number of singles and is a bad defensive player.
They need to hope that the bottom doesn’t drop out. The rotation has depth and a lot of questions. Sabathia is the horse at the top and everyone knows what he brings to the table.
Kuroda made a very smooth transition to the American League last year, posting a 3.32 ERA in a career-high 219.2 innings. But he is 38 years old.
Andy Pettitte turns 41 in June and has thrown 75 innings in the regular season over the last two years. His average fastball velocity was 87.8 mph (per Fangraphs).
Mark Teixeira’s on-base percentage has gone from .383 in his first season with the Yankees to .332 last season. His slugging percentage has dropped 90 points in the last four years, from .565 in 2009 to .475 in 2012.
By the way, Curtis Granderson and his 43 home runs last year will be out for at least the first month of the season after he was hit by a pitch that broke his arm.
This is a team that continues to bet against the odds and time, yet somehow they keep finding ways to succeed. If ever there was a time to bet against them, it would appear to be this season.
Those stop-gap players, like catcher Francisco Cervelli, designated hitter Travis Hafner and outfielders Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera, have to help keep the team’s head above water.
What could go wrong
The pitching rotation, like the lineup this offseason, could fall apart. Sabathia battled injuries last season and made just 28 starts, his fewest since 2006. When he is on the mound, he is still one of the best pitchers in the American League.
Beyond Sabathia, you start to run into questions. Can Kuroda keep defying the odds and performing well in his late 30s? Will Andy Pettitte hold up for an entire season at his age? Will Phil Hughes be more than a back-of-the-rotation arm? Will Michael Pineda give them anything?
The lineup looks like a mess right now. Brett Gardner at the top would be an improvement. Cano in the No. 3 spot is safe. Jeter doesn’t seem likely to rack up 200 hits again. Rodriguez may not play this season. Youkilis hit .235/.336/.409 last season with Boston and Chicago.
Teixeira has been declining ever since he signed that contract with the Yankees. Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and/or Austin Romine catching could combine to post a .300 on-base percentage.
Mariano Rivera’s cutter may not break the way it used to, or he could lose some command after missing so much time in 2012.
This team is vulnerable and that has given everyone else in the division confidence needed to knock the Yankees down a peg or two.
SD Yankee Report 